Thus, with the help of indicators of the gross product, an attempt is made to measure the volume of the annual (quarterly, monthly) output of goods and services in the economy.

This general, summary value of the gross product is of interest to us, Firstly, in terms of what it is made up of, and, secondly, what it is spent on.

Therefore, GDP or GNP can be determined by one of three methods, by summing:

Value added for all sectors of the national economy (GNP by production or by industry);

All expenses for the purchase of the total volume of products produced in a given year (GNP by expenditure, by method of use);

All income received in the country from the production of goods and services of a given year (GNP by source of income).

Calculation of GDP by industry. An analysis of the GDP indicator using the first method of calculation (by industry) makes it possible to identify the correlation and role of individual industries in the creation of GDP.

For example, in 1998, Russia's GNP by industry was:

Calculation of GDP by expenditure. In accordance with the second method of calculating GDP, by use (by expenditure), it includes the following items:

1. Final consumer spending of households. These are consumer goods, consumer durables, expenses for consumer services, etc.

Personal consumption spending - C(consumption).

2. Gross capital investment, gross savings and changes in inventories. This includes: a) gross capital investment in fixed assets, ie. purchase of machinery and equipment for construction; b) increase (decrease) in inventory, i.e. change in stocks of raw materials, materials, fuel and finished products.

Gross private domestic investment - Ig(investment).

3. Final expenses of government bodies. These are government spending on the purchase of products of enterprises and the purchase of resources for the needs of the state. This is expressed in the amount of state expenses for the payment of wages to civil servants, for the purchase of goods and services.

Public procurement of goods and services - G(government purchases of goods and services).

4. The balance of exports and imports (part of the generated GNP is exported, and, on the other hand, part of the country's funds is spent on goods and services that are imported from abroad).

Net export - xn(net export).

C + Ig + G + Xn = GDP (GDP)

Calculation of GDP by income. In accordance with the third method of calculating GDP (by income), statistics gets an answer to the question: how does the gross product created in a year go to households and owners of economic resources?

Therefore, GDP when calculated using this method includes the following items:

1. Wages of employees;

2. Profits of firms and corporations;

3. Income from unincorporated businesses owned individually or by families and income from self-employed workers: artists, writers, lawyers and other self-employed workers;

4. Rent payments, i.e. income received by owners of property: land, other real estate, etc.;

5. Interest on loan capital, i.e. payments to suppliers of money (loan) capital used in the production of GNP;

6. Depreciation charges.

In fact, this is the distribution of a part of GDP, not directly related to the payment of income. These are deductions for "capital consumption", i.e. to create a monetary fund that compensates for the depreciation of fixed assets involved in the creation of GDP.

In the practice of a market economy, GDP calculated by income also includes indirect taxes, i.e. value added tax, sales tax, excises, customs duties, etc.

It is, as it were, unearned income that the state receives by increasing prices for its maintenance. Government subsidies are deducted from GDP.

It is easy to see that the GDP calculated by this method is a set of incomes received from economic resources used in the process of producing a social product during the year (quarter, month).

Naturally, GDP calculated by income and expenditure (by use) should be equal, i.e. the use of GNP is at the same time the income of persons who have certain factors of production.

Let us consider the most important indicators of the system of national accounts that characterize the movement of GDP at its various stages.

Net domestic product (NDP) is GDP less depreciation charges. Using the GDP indicator, one can measure the annual volume of production that the economy (enterprises, states, households) is able to consume without reducing the production possibilities of future periods: NVP = GDP - depreciation.

Thus, only net investment is included in FVP. As for depreciation, it is part of gross investment and is included in GDP. Depreciation reflects the stock of capital that was used in the current year.

National income (ND). To determine the indicator of the total amount of wages, interest, profit and rent, i.e. payments received in the production of GDP in a given year, indirect taxes on entrepreneurs must be deducted from the GDP.

The meaning of this calculation is that the state, while levying indirect taxes from enterprises, does not invest anything in production, and therefore it cannot be considered as a supplier of economic resources.

Thus, we get the indicator of national income (NI). From the point of view of resource owners, national income is a measure of their income from participation in production for the current period.

Disposable income (DI), or personal disposable income represents the income received by households, other than the NI, which is earned income .

It should be noted here that part of the income earned - social insurance contributions, corporate income taxes - does not go to the population.

At the same time, transfer payments made by the state are not the result of an employee's economic activity, but represent part of his income.

Thus, disposable income as income actually received can be calculated by subtracting social security contributions, corporate income taxes, retained earnings, individual taxes (income, personal property taxes, inheritance taxes) from national income and adding the sum of all transfer payments.

Disposable income is at the personal disposal of members of society and is used for household consumption and savings.

So, the relationship of macroeconomic indicators can be represented by the following scheme:

gross domestic product (GDP) - depreciation =

net domestic product (CHVP) – indirect taxes =

national income (ND) - income taxes

enterprises – social insurance contributions –

personal income taxes

corporate retained earnings +

transfer payments =

disposable income (RD).

GDP and "pure" economic well-being. The GDP indicator makes it possible to measure the volume of the country's annual production in monetary terms. At the same time, it is believed that GDP does not fully reflect the real economic well-being of the nation.

This is explained by the following circumstances.

Firstly, in almost all countries, there is no systematic and reliable statistics on such activities as home care for the sick and children, home improvement on the “do it yourself” principle (repair of your apartments, electrical and radio equipment, shoes, cars, etc.), which, undoubtedly, increase the welfare of society, but do not have a market value.

Secondly, GDP does not take into account the results of such sectors of the shadow economy as illegal entertainment, racketeering, production and sale of drugs, moneyless exchange of services, illegal production of alcoholic beverages, fraud, etc., which adversely affect the well-being of society.

And how can they be taken into account if the income from this activity is not declared?

Shadow and legal business are firmly fused, so it is often difficult to distinguish them from each other.

Thus, not all activities within the shadow economy can be taken into account when calculating GDP.

At the same time, many subjects of the shadow economy are trying to legalize their activities, they are striving to “enter power”, their economic strength is enormous, which cannot be ignored when assessing the main macroeconomic indicators (GDP, employment, money supply, etc.).

But it is possible to name completely legal types of activity, such as tutoring, which is also not included in GDP due to the unwillingness of a person engaged in home training to declare their income.

Third, in the GDP indicator, there is no assessment of the negative results of the functioning of production (depletion of resources, climate change, environmental pollution), which entails a decrease in the well-being of society.

Fourth, The GDP indicator does not take into account the well-being of society associated with leisure: as is known, in a highly developed economy, the level of income is sufficient for quality recreation and an increase in free time for a significant part of the population, which is equivalent to an increase in the country's well-being.

The influence of these factors on social welfare can be taken into account by the indicator of "net economic welfare" of society (NEW), introduced into scientific circulation by American economists W. Nordhaus and J. Tobin:

CEB = GDP - monetary value of negative factors affecting welfare + non-market activities (in monetary terms) + monetary value of free time.

The whole difficulty lies in how to give a monetary value to all those activities that are not of a market nature and, therefore, cannot be valued in the process of free market exchange.

The indicator of net economic well-being is interesting, first of all, as a theoretical statement of the problem of taking into account various aspects of the functioning of the economy, including the informal one.

However, in practice, the statistical services of the United Nations and the national accounting services of individual states do not yet have a unified methodology for calculating net economic welfare.

That is why we see the abbreviation CEB in textbooks on macroeconomics, and not in statistical collections of various countries of the world.

Nominal and real GDP. So far, our analysis has focused mainly on the problem of calculating GDP and NI. Now is the time to find out how the price level is determined.

Measuring the price level is important for two reasons.

Firstly, it is important for us to know how the price level has changed over a certain period of time. This means that we need to be aware of whether inflation (an increase in the price level) or deflation (a decrease in the price level) has taken place, and if so, to what extent.

Secondly, since GDP is the market value, or otherwise the monetary value, of all final goods and services produced during the year, monetary measures are used as the most common measure when flattening the dissimilar components of total output.

The value of production volumes of different years (GDP) can only be comparable if the value of the monetary unit does not change.

If calculations are made in current prices, then the physical volume of production may be distorted. For example, GDP at current prices has increased over the year from 1 trillion. rub. up to 2 trillion. rub. what does this mean? An increase in the number of goods and services produced by 2 times or an increase in the general price level by the same amount, without any economic growth? Or both, to some extent, at the same time?

The answer to this question is given by the difference in the values ​​of nominal and real GDP.

Nominal GDP is GDP calculated at current prices. In macroeconomic theory, it is denoted by the symbol PQ, where P is the price index and Q is the volume of production.

But how to determine the physical volume of production? To do this, you need to do the following procedure: install the so-called base year and calculate it in the prices of GDP produced in the current year.

For example, all goods and services produced in 2000 are calculated in 1990 prices. In industrialized countries, a new base year is determined every 10-15 years. It would be wrong to compare the physical volumes of GDP in 2000 and previous years, using for many decades the prices of goods and services, for example, 1913, chosen as the base year.

After all, in those distant times there simply did not exist those goods and services that are familiar to us now - televisions, computers, Internet services, many medicines, etc., and, consequently, there were no prices for these goods.

So, real GDP is the actual output of output calculated at the prices of the base year.

GDP at basic prices may increase less or more than GDP at current prices in a year. And this happens because of changes in the general price level in the country.

Thus, to calculate real GDP, one must use price index.

real GDP (Q)= nominal GDP (PQ)/GDP deflator (P),

hence,

GDP deflator (P)= nominal GDP (PQ)/real GDP (Q)

The GDP deflator measures the intensity of inflation or the reverse process - deflation, when there is a decrease in the general price level in the country.

If the value of the price index turned out to be greater than 1, then we produced deflation GDP, i.e. eliminated the inflation factor. If the price index turned out to be less than 1, then we produced inflation , i.e. cleared nominal GDP of the effects of deflation.

For Russia, for example, the GDP deflator in 1996 compared to 1990 was 5929.

Since the GDP deflator is based on a calculation that takes into account all goods and services produced in a country, it is a comprehensive price index applicable to measure the absolute price level.

It should be emphasized here that macroeconomic theory uses various price indices to calculate real GDP.

In addition to the GDP deflator, used consumer price index(CPI) and producer price index(PPI) , which measures the level of wholesale prices.

At the same time, both fixed sets of goods (the so-called “consumer basket”) and changing ones can be used as price weights.

In this regard, the price indices of Laspeyres, Paasche and Fischer should be singled out.

Laspeyres index is an index, where the price weights are an unchanged set of goods (the "consumer basket" unchanged in its composition)

I L = å p 1 i q 0 i / å p 0 i q 0 i

where q 0 i is the quantity of goods and services produced in the base year, and p 0 i are the prices of goods and services in the base year, p 1 i are the prices of goods in the current year. The summation is made over all goods and services included in the set.

Paasche index - price index, where the quantities of goods produced in the current year are taken as price weights:

I P = å p 1 i q 1 i / å p 0 i q 1 i

where q 1 i is the quantity of goods and services in the current year.

The GDP deflator discussed earlier is the Paasche index. These indices are widely used to measure the standard of living.

At the same time, the Laspeyres index is calculated, as we noted, for an unchanged set of goods, and, therefore, it does not take into account the replacement of expensive products with cheap ones.

On the contrary, the Paasche index reflects the possibility of mutual substitution of goods.

In recent years, it has also been widely used Fisher index, which is the geometric mean of the Laspeyres and Paasche indices.

I F = √ I L I P

Note the differences between the GDP deflator and the CPI calculated as the Laspeyres index.

Firstly, the GDP deflator takes into account the prices of all goods and services produced in the country, while the CPI reflects only the prices of goods purchased by households ("consumer basket").

Secondly, the GDP deflator does not take into account the prices of imported goods, which is reflected in the CPI.

Third, the deflator allows for changes in the set of goods and services in accordance with changes in the composition of GDP. CPI is calculated, as we emphasized, for a fixed set of goods included in the “consumer basket.

The System of National Accounts uses the Laspeyres index and the Paasche index. At the same time, when studying price dynamics, preference is given to the Laspeyres index, and for revaluation of indicators in constant prices, to the Paasche index.

As for the Fisher index, the 1993 SNA gives priority to it, since, being the geometric mean of the Laspeyres and Paasche indices, this indicator does not depend on the choice of the comparison base and, therefore, is free from the disadvantages inherent in other indices.

In conclusion, let me remind you. that economic theory uses the categories of stock and flow known to us to characterize many indicators not only at the micro, but also at the macro level.

Examples of related stocks and flows include: stock- the amount of money at the disposal of the population for a certain period of time, flow- nominal GDP for a certain period of time; stock- the number of unemployed for a certain period of time, flow is the number of people who lose their jobs over a period of time.

In this topic, we looked at the way economists measure national product and the general price level.

Having studied how to measure the volume of the national product and having analyzed the shortcomings of GDP, what conclusion can be drawn regarding the adequacy of our measurements? Do they reveal key trends? Are they adequate measures of economic well-being?

It is hardly possible to unequivocally answer these questions. Perhaps no one will be surprised by the fact that an increase in the standard of living in the state does not at all guarantee a happy society, just as personal success does not guarantee happiness in the family.

No amount of GDP growth can counteract societal tensions stemming from an unpopular and badly waged war, ingrained national prejudices, volcanic outbursts of sexual aggressivity, and an unprecedented youth yearning for independence.

Topic 2. Macroeconomic balance.

Gross domestic product is a calculated indicator and represents the total market value of the final goods and services created in the territory of the country for a certain period of time (usually a year).

When calculating GDP, intermediate products, transfers, transactions with securities, second-hand goods are not taken into account. At the same time, the value of GDP includes an increase in inventories (unsold products created during the year, including all raw materials produced that were not processed).

There are three methods for calculating GDP:

1) by income: factor income of economic entities (salary, bonuses, profit, rent, interest) is summed up, as well as, in accordance with statistical reporting, depreciation and net indirect taxes on business (taxes minus subsidies);

2) by expenditures: expenditures of all economic entities, household consumer expenditures, investment expenditures of firms, government expenditures on the purchase of goods, services and investments, net exports (balance of exports and imports) are summed up;

3) by value added (production method): only the value added at each stage of the production of the final product is summed up.

Added value is an increase in value. It can be defined as the difference between the total revenue received by the firm from the sale of this product and the sum of the costs of acquiring raw materials, materials, fuel, energy, etc. from other firms (i.e., the cost of intermediate products).

Distinguish nominal GDP, calculated at current prices and real calculated in base year prices.

The ratio between nominal GDP and real GDP gives a composite measure of the price level, or deflator:

7. Aggregate demand

Aggregate demand(aggregate demand - AD) characterizes the desire and ability of households, firms, states and foreign countries to purchase a certain amount of goods and services at the prevailing price level.

AD includes the following elements:

a) household consumer spending (consumption demaund - C);

b) investment costs of firms (investment demaund - I);

c) demand from the state - public procurement of goods and services (gorerments pending - G);

d) the demand of foreign countries - net exports (netexport - NE).

The formula for aggregate demand is:

This formula reflects the expenditures that macroeconomic entities intend to make. At the same time, the higher the general level of prices, the less they intend to spend on the purchase of final goods and services.

Therefore, the dependency AD from the general price level is inverse and can be graphically represented as a curve with a negative slope.

Rice. 3. Aggregate demand curve AD

The y-axis plots the general price level ( R), and along the abscissa, real GDP, i.e., expressed in prices of the base year (Fig. 3).

In macroeconomics, economic entities are both buyers and sellers. Losing as buyers as prices rise, they win as sellers. Moreover, we are not talking about the price of an individual product, but about the general level of prices. Therefore, the negative slope of the curve cannot be explained. AD like in microeconomics. There, the change in the magnitude of demand for an individual product was explained by dependence on the price of it, a decrease in marginal utility, income and substitution effects.

Negative slope of the aggregate demand curve AD caused by other price factors. This:

1) "the interest rate effect". For example, when the price level rises, the demand for money increases, as the need for money for current transactions increases. With a constant money supply, banks, in order to attract insufficient cash, raise interest rates, which reduces the costs of economic agents associated with obtaining a loan, and therefore reduces the volume of aggregate demand;

2) "wealth effect". When the price level rises, the real purchasing power of financial assets (stocks, bonds, fixed-term accounts, etc.) falls. As a result, their owners become poorer and aggregate demand shrinks;

3) "the effect of imported goods". With an increase in the domestic price level, the demand for domestic goods decreases, and for cheaper imported goods, it increases, which leads to a decrease in aggregate demand.

Curve shift AD occurs as a result of changes in non-price factors:

1) changes in consumer spending, i.e., associated with changes in the level of well-being: income growth, changes in income tax, etc.;

2) changes in investment costs, i.e., in the volume of purchases of capital goods, associated with a change in the level of taxes on business, the level of use of production capacities;

3) changes in public spending caused mainly by political decisions;

4) changes in the cost of net exports, due to the level of income in the country, changes in the exchange rate;

5) changes in the world economy, since currency fluctuations, economic growth in other countries also affect aggregate demand.

Gross domestic product (GDP) is an indicator of the overall economic condition of a country. It gives an idea of ​​the general material well-being of the nation, since the higher the level of production, the higher the welfare of the country.

The subject of study of GDP are economic units - residents that produce goods and services for final use for a certain period.

The relevance of this work is that the GDP indicator is very important for the economy as a whole. It is used to characterize the results of production, the level of economic development, the rate of economic growth, the analysis of labor productivity in the economy, and so on.

The purpose of this work is to study GDP as the most important indicator of the system of national accounts. At the same time, the following tasks are solved: the study of key concepts of GDP and methods for its calculation.

The main source was the book by Islam Abduganievich Karimov, as well as the websites of the State Statistics Committee, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Economic Development on the Internet, and some other sources, which are described in more detail in the list of used literature.

When solving the main tasks I will use teaching aids, textbooks and other types of printed materials of Russian and foreign authors, a list of which will be indicated at the end of the work.

1. The concept of gross domestic product and its place in the system of national accounts

Gross domestic product (GDP) is the central indicator of the system of national accounts (SNA), which characterizes the value of final goods and services produced by the country's residents for a given period. GDP is calculated at end-use market prices, that is, at prices paid by the buyer, including all trade and transport margins and taxes on products. GDP is used to characterize the results of production, the level of economic development, the rate of economic growth, the analysis of labor productivity in the economy, and so on.

Before proceeding to characterize the methods for calculating GDP, it is necessary to focus on the key points in the concept of an indicator.

First of all, " GDP- this is an indicator of the produced product, which is the value of final goods and services produced by residents of a given country. This means that the value of intermediate goods and services used in the production process (such as raw materials, materials, fuel, energy, seeds, feed, trucking services, wholesale trade, commercial and financial services, etc.) is not included in GDP. Otherwise, the GDP would contain a recount.

In order to correctly calculate total output, it is necessary that all products and services produced in a given year be counted once, and no more. Most products go through several production stages before they reach the market. As a result, the individual parts and components of most products are bought and sold multiple times. Thus, in order to avoid multiple counting of parts of products that are sold and resold, only the market value of final products is taken into account in calculating GDP, and intermediate products are excluded.

For example, grain grown in agriculture, before turning into the final product - bread, goes through four stages of processing:

1) collection, threshing and sorting of grain in agriculture;

2) cleaning, drying and storage in elevators;

3) grinding grain in mills;

4) baking bread at bakeries.

If, suppose the price of grain produced in agriculture is n units, then during its processing and processing at the next three stages, this price is included three more times in the production costs at the elevator, mill, bakery, and ultimately summed up four times when calculating the volume of production in all industries. However, the real value created at each stage of grain processing and covering the cost of production and income, appears only in the form of wages, depreciation and profits of this particular enterprise.

Therefore, to avoid multiple double counting, GDP should act as the value of final goods and services and include only the value created (added) at each intermediate stage of processing.

Let us consider in more detail the concept of value added.

« Added value- this is the value created in the production process at this enterprise and covering the real contribution of the enterprise to the creation of the value of a particular product, i.e. wages, profits and depreciation of a particular enterprise. Therefore, the cost of raw materials and materials consumed, which were purchased from suppliers, and in the creation of which the enterprise did not participate, is not included in the value added of the product produced by this enterprise.

In other words, “value added is the gross output of an enterprise (or the market price of manufactured products) minus current material costs, but with the inclusion of deductions for depreciation (since the fixed assets of an enterprise take part in creating a new value of manufactured products)” . In Soviet practice, this indicator was called conditionally net production.

2. Methods for calculating gross domestic product

Gross domestic product can be calculated using the following three methods:

1. As a sum of gross value added (production method)

2. As the sum of end use components (end use method)

3. As the sum of primary income (distributive method)

When calculating production method GDP is calculated by summing the gross value added of all resident production units grouped by industry or sector.

In the SNA, value added is measured at so-called basic prices, including subsidies on products, but less taxes on products (eg sales tax, VAT, etc.). This approach makes it possible to more accurately measure the contribution of each industry to the creation of GDP. “It should be noted that the relationship between gross value added and GDP takes the following form”:

GDP = ∑ D + N - U

where ∑ D is the value added of all sectors of the economy in basic prices;

N - taxes on products;

U - subsidies for products.

The calculation of gross value added should also take into account intermediate consumption costs of indirectly measured financial intermediation services, which are defined as the difference between interest received and paid by financial intermediaries (e.g. banks) and refer to all their customers, i.e. businesses and households , residents and non-residents. Therefore, they should be allocated between them and shown in intermediate consumption of production units, final consumption of households and exports of services, respectively. However, this calculation methodology is under consideration, and for now most countries use the 1968 SNA method, according to which all indirectly measured financial intermediation services are attributed to the intermediate consumption expenditure of a conventional unit, the output of which is zero. Thus, the sum of the gross value added of industries or sectors must be reduced by the value of the cost of financial intermediation services.

However, this is not enough to estimate GDP at market prices. It is also necessary to take into account net taxes on products, i.e. add taxes on products not included in the estimate of gross value added of industries or sectors and subtract subsidies on products included in the estimate of gross value added. These taxes on products primarily include taxes on imports and value added taxes, which are not included in gross value added. In addition, if gross value added is calculated at basic prices, as recommended by the 1993 SNA, then all other taxes on products (excise taxes, export taxes, sales tax, turnover tax, etc.) must be added, since as in this case they are not included in the gross value added. Subsidies on products (other than subsidies on imports), by contrast, are included in the gross value added of industries or sectors at basic prices and should therefore be excluded from the total GDP at market prices.

According to the method end use GDP is defined as the sum of the following components:

1. expenditure on final consumption of goods and services;

2. gross capital formation;

3. balance of exports and imports of goods and services.

"The formula for calculating GDP by this method is as follows":

GDP = C + I + E

where C is final consumption;

I - investments (gross capital formation, growth of inventories, net acquisition of valuables);

E - net export.

Under the expenditure on final consumption of goods and services is understood the expenditure of households on consumer goods and services, as well as the expenditure of public administration institutions (budgetary organizations) and non-profit organizations on goods and services for individual and collective consumption. Household final consumption expenditure includes:

1. Expenses for the purchase of consumer goods and services

2. Consumption of goods and services received in kind as payment for labor, etc.

3. Consumption of goods and services produced by households for their own final consumption

The final consumption expenditure of government agencies and non-profit organizations is defined as follows: the current costs of maintaining these institutions minus the receipts to these institutions from the sale of goods and services at market prices, plus the value of consumer goods and services purchased by these institutions from market producers for transfer to households free of charge or at prices of no economic importance, plus reimbursement to households for the purchase of goods and services from public social insurance funds.

Gross domestic product (GDP) is one of the most important indicators of the system of national accounts, which characterizes the final result of the production activity of resident economic units and measures the value of goods and services produced by these units for final use.

GDP is a measure of the product produced, which is the value of final goods and services produced. This means that the value of intermediate goods and services used in the production process (such as raw materials, materials, fuel, energy, seeds, feed, trucking services, wholesale trade, commercial and financial services, etc.) is not included in GDP. Otherwise, the GDP would contain a recount.

Also, GDP is a domestic product because it is produced by residents. Residents include all economic units (enterprises and households), regardless of their nationality and citizenship, having a center of economic interest in the economic territory of a given country. This means that they are engaged in production activities or reside in the economic territory of the country for a long time (at least a year).

The economic territory of a country is the territory administered by the government of that country, within which persons, goods and money can move freely. Unlike geographical territory, it does not include territorial enclaves of other countries (embassies, military bases, etc.), but includes such enclaves of a given country located on the territory of other countries.

And finally, GDP is gross product, because it is calculated by subtracting the consumption of fixed capital. Consumption of fixed capital is a decrease in the value of fixed capital during the reporting period as a result of its physical and moral wear and tear, accidental damage that is not of a catastrophic nature.

In theory, domestic product should be determined on a net basis, i.e. minus the consumption of fixed capital. However, in order to determine the consumption of fixed capital in accordance with the principles of the system of national accounts, special calculations are required based on data on the replacement value of fixed assets, their service life and depreciation by type of fixed assets. Accounting depreciation is not suitable for this purpose. Not all countries make these calculations, and those that do use different methods. Thus, data on GDP are more readily available and comparable across countries, and therefore the measure of GDP has become more widely accepted than net domestic product.

Methods for calculating GDP

GDP can be calculated in the following three ways:

1. as the sum of gross value added (production method);
2. as the sum of end use components (end use method);
3. as the sum of primary incomes (distributive method).

When calculated by the production method, GDP is calculated by summing the gross value added of all production units of residents, grouped by industry or sector. Gross value added is the difference between the value of goods produced and services rendered (output) and the value of goods and services fully consumed in the production process (intermediate consumption).

Under the end-use method, GDP is defined as the sum of the following components: expenditure on final consumption of goods and services, gross capital formation, and the balance of exports and imports of goods and services.

When GDP is determined by the distribution method, it includes the following types of primary income paid by resident production units: wages of employees, net taxes on production and imports (taxes on production and imports minus subsidies on production and imports), gross profit and gross mixed income.

According to the Keynesian model of economic development, GDP in the simplest case is represented as the sum of 4 main components - consumption (C, from Consumption), investment (I, from Investments), government spending (S, from Government spending), and net exports, i.e. full export minus full import (E-M, from Export - iMport):

GDP = C + I + S + (E - M)

In the structure of consumption (C), 3 subclasses are usually distinguished: consumption of durable goods (more than 3 years) use (durable goods - cars, furniture, etc.), short-term (less than 3 years) use (nondurable goods - clothes, food, medicines, etc.). etc.) and services.

For example, in the US, durable goods account for about 15% of all consumption, nondurables - about 31%, and services - about 54%. Overall, C currently accounts for about 56% of US GDP and is thus its most important component.

Investments (I) are responsible for about 14% of GDP, government spending (S) - social payments, armaments, interest on government bonds, etc. - for 17%, and, finally, exports (E - M) - for about 13%. Note that for the United States it would be more logical to call the last component of GDP net imports, since this country imports incomparably more goods and services than it exports (i.e., the value of E - M is negative).

GDP per capita

No less important and, at the same time, more fully reflecting the standard of living in a particular country in the world compared to GDP is the indicator of Gross Domestic Product, calculated per capita. This indicator is calculated as the ratio of GDP to the population of the country and shows how much of the gross product produced in the country per year and expressed in value terms, falls on 1 inhabitant of this country. This indicator is used, first of all, to determine the standard of living of the population in a particular state.

GDP per capita in the 100 largest countries in the world in 2005

Data for 2014 can be viewed

place	a country	GDP per 1 inhabitant, USD
1	Luxembourg	69,800
2	Norway	42,364
3	USA	41,399
4	Ireland	40,610
5	Iceland	35,586
6	Denmark	34,737
7	Canada	34,273
8	Austria	33,615
9	hong kong	33,411
10	Switzerland	32,571
11	Qatar	31,397
12	Belgium	31,244
13	Finland	31,208
14	Australia	30,897
15	Netherlands	30,862
16	Japan	30,615
17	Germany	30,579
18	Great Britain	30,470
19	Sweden	29,898
20	France	29,316
21	Italy	28,760
22	Singapore	28,100
23	UAE	27,957
24	Taiwan	27,572
25	Spain	26,320
26	Brunei	24,826
27	New Zealand	24,769
28	Israel	23,416
29	Antilles	22,750
30	Greece	22,392
31	Slovenia	21,911
32	Cyprus	21,232
33	South Korea	20,590
34	Bahamas	20,076
35	Bahrain	19,799
36	Malta	19,739
37	Portugal	19,335
38	Czech Republic	18,375
39	Barbados	17,610
40	Hungary	17,405
41	Oman	16,862
42	Equatorial Guinea	16,507
43	Estonia	16,414
44	Kuwait	16,301
45	Slovakia	16,041
46	Saudi Arabia	15,229
47	Saint Kitts and Nevis	14,649
48	Trinidad and Tobago	14,258
49	Lithuania	14,158
50	Argentina	14,109
51	Poland	12,994
52	Mauritia	12,966
53	Latvia	12,622
54	South Africa	12,160
55	Croatia	12,158
56	Chile	11,937
57	Seychelles	11,818
58	Libya	11,630
59	Antigua and Barbuda	11,523
60	Botswana	11,410
61	Malaysia	11,201
62	Russia	11,041
63	Costa Rica	10,434
64	Mexico	10,186
65	Uruguay	10,028
66	Bulgaria	9,223
67	Romania	8,785
68	Brazil	8,584
69	Thailand	8,319
70	Kazakhstan	8,318
71	Tunisia	8,255
72	Grenada	8,198
73	Turkmenistan	8,098
74	Iran	7,980
75	Turkey	7,950
76	Tonga	7,935
77	Belize	7,832
78	Belarus	7,711
79	Maldives	7,675
80	Republic of Macedonia	7,645
81	Colombia	7,565
82	Saint Vicente and the Grenadines	7,493
83	Panama	7,283
84	China	7,204
85	Dominican Republic	7,203
86	Algeria	7,189
87	Ukraine	7,156
88	Namibia	7,101
89	Gabon	7,055
90	Lebanon	6,681
91	Dominica	6,520
92	Cape Verde	6,418
93	Fiji	6,375
94	Samoa	6,344
95	Venezuela	6,186
96	Bosnia and Herzegovina	6,035
97	Peru	5,983
98	Santa Lucia	5,950
99	Suriname	5,683
100	Serbia	5,348

The calculation of the social product with the help of GDP and a system of interrelated indicators allows you to keep abreast of the economic pulse of the country. Various indicators enable us to measure the volume of production at a particular point in time and reveal the factors that directly determine the functioning of the economy. Comparing the levels of national income over a certain period of time, we can construct a curve

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Introduction…………………………………………………………………………….3

Chapter 1. The essence and structure of the system of national accounts……………...5

Chapter 2. GDP as an element of macroeconomics…………………………………..9

2.1. History and economic origin of the term GDP………………9

2.2 The concept of GDP………………………………………………………………….9

2.3 Composition of GDP…………………………………………………………………….12

Chapter 3. Methods for calculating gross domestic product ………………...14

3.1. Nominal and real GDP…………………………………………………………………………………14

3.2. Calculation of GDP by source of income……………………………………...15

3.3. Calculation of GDP by expenditures……………………………………………………..18

Chapter 4. Dynamics of GDP in Russia …………………………………………….21

Conclusion……………………………………………………………………...26

References……………………………………………………………..29

Doing.

Macroeconomics is a branch of economic theory, or political economy, designed to find out how the economic system as a whole functions. It studies the conditions, factors and results of the development of the national economy as a whole. Among its objects are: wealth and income of the nation, rates and factors of economic growth, structure and proportions.

In connection with the transition of our country to market relations, it became necessary to rebuild domestic statistics, introduce indicators and a system of indicators adapted to characterize the functioning of a market economy. This also applies to macroeconomic indicators designed to provide the most general description of the most important results and proportions of economic development. Russia began to apply in domestic statistics the system of national accounts used in most countries of the world and recommended by a number of international organizations.

Gross domestic product (GDP) is the mainmacroeconomic indicator in the statistics of countries, as well as international organizations, the most complete official indicator of public welfare.

The calculation of the social product with the help of GDP and a system of interrelated indicators allows you to keep abreast of the economic pulse of the country. Various indicators enable us to measure the volume of production at a particular point in time and reveal the factors that directly determine the functioning of the economy. Comparing the levels of national income over a certain period of time, we can build a curve that characterizes the functioning of the economy in the long run: its rise or fall will be reflected in the volume of GDP and a system of interrelated indicators. Finally, the information that GDP and the system of interrelated indicators give us is the basis for the formation and implementation of public policy aimed at improving the functioning of the economy.

The presented problem in the course work is especially relevant in the modern world.

The subject of the course work is a macroeconomic indicator, like the gross domestic product.

The object of the study is the calculation of gross domestic product in terms of expenditures and incomes.

The main purpose of the work is to analyze the dynamics and structure of the gross domestic product.

Chapter 1. Essence and structure of the system of national accounts.

To analyze macroeconomics, a system of indicators is needed that gives a complete picture of economic life. In countries with a centralized economy, a system of balances of the national economy was used, and in marketsystem of national accounts.

The need for a system of macroeconomic indicators was recognized by the English economist William Petty, who was the first in the world to assess the national income of his country. The first model of the national economy was created by the Frenchman Francois Quesnay, the head of the physiocratic school. However, the need for a system of macroeconomic indicators appeared especially strongly in the 1920s and 1930s. 20th century In the USSR, a system of indicators and tables was created, called the balance of the national economy, which was already used in the preparation of the first five-year plan for the development of the national economy (1928-1932). In the West, the development of such a system began after the Great Depression of 1929-1933. A number of important principles of this system were formulated by A. Marshall, then J.M. Keynes; Great contributions were made by the English economists R. Stone, C. Clark, J. Hicks and the American economists S. Kuznets, M. Gilbert, V. Leontiev, and others. The United Nations published a document called "The System of National Accounts and Ancillary Tables", which can be considered as the first internationally recognized version of the system of macroeconomic indicators. This system was revised, and the 1993 version is now in effect. Russia also began to switch to it.

System of National Accountsthis is a unified way of organizing information about various aspects of economic processes, the conditions and abilities for their implementation, as well as their results at various phases of social reproduction on a national scale, adapted to international static accounting. 1

System of National Accounts (SNA)This is a system of interrelated indicators used to describe and analyze macroeconomic processes. 2 It provides information about all stages of the economic cycle production and exchange, primary and secondary distribution (redistribution), consumption and savings (accumulation).

UN SNA 1993 Includes an estimate of the shadow economy, which is the production of ordinary goods and services carried out underground in order to hide tax revenues. Moreover, she proposes to take into account even the production of legally illegal goods and services (drugs, prostitution, etc.), as well as household work (cooking, cleaning homes, raising children, etc.), although most countries world, including Russia, are not ready to include estimates of this activity in their calculations.

SNA is a system of interrelated statistical indicators built in the form of a specific set of accounts and a set of balance sheet economic tablescharacterizing the results of the economic activity of the country: on the one hand, the costs of business entities for the purchase of goods, on the other hand, their income from the results of economic activity. 3

Thus, the system of national accounts is reduced to the formation of general indicators of the functioning of the economy at various stages of the reproduction process and the mutual binding of these indicators to each other. Those. the main goal is to obtain, on the basis of statistical reporting data, quantitative information about the production, distribution and use of a social product. To do this, for each of the macroeconomic entities and the national economy as a whole, a system of functional accounts is compiled, reflecting the participation of this entity in the following economic processes:

• production of goods and services;
• formation of the national income;
• distribution of national income;
• redistribution of national income;
• use of national income;
• change of property;
• lending and financing.

National accounts allow you to streamline information about economic activity, playing a role in the national economy, similar to the system of accounting accounts in an enterprise. When calculating macroeconomic indicators based on the SNA, no distinction is made between tangible and intangible production. Therefore, they take into account all paid goods and services. The only types of production not included in the SNA are the production of goods and services by households for domestic consumption; the production of an intermediate product consumed within the business sector, and the illegal production of goods and services.

National accounts are based on modern macroeconomic indicators based on the principles of modern international thinking and the state of practical economics. The indicators cover the main aspects of the economic and social activities of states (the state of the economy, the level of well-being of the population and the quality of life, budgetary issues, inflation, public debt, foreign economic activity, etc.)

TO macroeconomic indicators related to the SNA include: Gross national product (GNP), gross national disposable income, final consumption, gross capital formation, national saving; net lending and net borrowing, national wealth andGross domestic product (GDP).

Chapter 2. GDP as an element of macroeconomics.

1. History and economic origin of the term GDP.

Gross domestic product, also known as GDP, is a term well known not only in the economic sphere, but throughout society.

Work on measuring the volume of national production began in the 30s of the XX century. The first use of the term Gross Domestic Product was proposed by Simon Kuznets back in 1934. Prior to this, no one had an idea about the country's economic activities in detail.

S. Kuznets recalculated US national income accounts up to 1869. The first report on national income and production for the period 1929-1935 was presented to the US Congress in 1937. Prior to this, no one had a detailed idea of ​​the country's economic activity. The term macroeconomics was not used in print until 1939. The work of Simon Kuznets was truly appreciated in 1971, when he received the Nobel Prize for his research.

Until 1991, the basic indicator in macroeconomic studies was the Gross National Product. GDP has become the main indicator for compatibility with the United Nations System of National Accounts.

1. The concept of GDP.

Gross domestic product (GDP) is the most important general indicator of the system of national accounts.

GDP is the market value of the final product (goods or services) produced over a certain period of time (during the year) by national (domestic) and foreign producers in the territory of a given country.

GDP is a domestic product because it is produced by residents, which include all economic entities (enterprises and the population), regardless of their nationality and citizenship, that have an economic interest in the economic territory of a given country, within which persons, goods and money can move freely .

First, GDP isoutput indicator, which is the value of the final goods and services produced. Note that the end product is the product purchased for consumption, and not for further processing or resale, i.e. the value of intermediate goods and services used in the production process (such as raw materials, materials, fuel, energy, seeds, feed, freight transport services, wholesale trade, commercial and financial services, etc.) is not included in GDP. Otherwise, the GDP would contain a recount.

Second, GDP isdomestic productbecause it is produced by residents. Residents include all economic units (enterprises and households), regardless of their nationality and citizenship, having a center of economic interest in the economic territory of a given country. That is, the income of the population and organizations in material production and services, obtained using factors of production belonging to a given country. GDP is equal to the total newly created (added) value. GDP does not take into account the value of goods and services produced by domestic economic entities abroad.

Thirdly, GDP is gross product an indicator that characterizes the volume of production in a particular industry in value (monetary) terms 4 , and it is calculated before deducting the consumption of fixed capital. Consumption of fixed capital is a decrease in the value of fixed capital during the reporting period as a result of its physical and moral deterioration and accidental damage that is not of a catastrophic nature.

GDP performs the following features :

• measuring;
• comparing: allows you to compare levels in different states;
• dynamic: characterizes the direction of economic development;
• assessment of the standard of living: GDP per unit of population characterizes the quality of life in the state.

Taking into account the bipolarity of economic processes, when calculating GDP, two methodological approaches are used according to expenses and income.

Both approaches are recognized as equivalent and should eventually give almost the same GDP. Income and expenses is a kind of economic "pull push", because the income of some business entities are expenses: some produce, sell, others buy, consume. In other words, such a calculation technology makes it possible to trace the movement of the social product through the phases of the reproduction cycle.

The main problems in measuring the results of national production are: intermediate goods, non-manufacturing transactions, inflation and deflation, timeliness and accuracy of data, the shadow economy and other factors.

Gross domestic product is one of the most important parameters of economic development, which are subject to systematic monitoring by economists. This attitude to GDP is due to the fact that it expresses the final result of the functioning of the entire economy, and therefore it is he who is primarily the object of macroeconomic regulation. All regulatory measures of the government, ultimately, are aimed at ensuring the desired value of GDP.

2.3. Composition of GDP.

Only what is sold is included in GDP. When calculating GDP, it is necessary to sum up many completely heterogeneous goods into a single economic indicator. To overcome this difficulty, the use of market prices, which reflect the amount of money that the consumer is willing to pay for a particular product, helps. So, if one product costs twice as much as another, then its contribution to GDP will be twice as much.

GDP should include all goods and services produced and sold, from potatoes and grapes to books and movies, from a haircut by a barber to a consultation with a doctor or lawyer.

GDP takes into account the market value of housing rentals. For rented premises, it is easily determined either as the sum of the tenants' expenses or as the landlord's income. However, many people live in their own homes and therefore do not incur the cost of renting a home. The state takes into account the contribution of this category of citizens to GDP, adding to it a hypothetical amount of rental payments calculated at market prices. Essentially, GDP contains the estimated amount of their expenses as tenants and the estimated amount of their income as landlords.

There are groups of goods whose value is excluded from GDP due to the difficulty of determining it. These include products manufactured and sold illegally, such as drugs, or produced by households solely for domestic consumption. Therefore, vegetables purchased in a store are included in GDP, while those grown on their own plot and consumed in the family are not.

Chapter 3. Methods for calculating gross domestic product

3.1. Nominal and real GDP.

All main indicators in the system of national accounts reflect the results of economic activity for the year, i.e. are expressed in prices of a given year (at current prices) and are therefore nominal. Nominal indicators do not allow for both cross-country comparisons and comparisons of the level of economic development of the same country in different periods of time. Such comparisons can only be made using real indicators (indicators of real output and real income), which are expressed in constant (comparable) prices. Therefore, it is important to distinguish between nominal and real (cleared from the influence of changes in the price level) indicators.

Nominal GDP is GDP calculated at current prices, at the prices of the given year.

Nominal GDP the volume of national production in the prices of the current period, i.e. at the time of production of this volume of goods and services.

Two factors influence the value of nominal GDP:

• Change in real output
• Change in the price level.

In order to measure real GDP, it is necessary to "clear" nominal GNP from the effect of changes in the price level.

Real GDP GDP indicator adjusted for changes in the price level (inflation or deflation); measured in base year prices.

Real GDP is GDP measured in comparable (constant) prices, in base year prices. At the same time, any year can be chosen as the base year, chronologically both earlier and later than the current one.

3.2. Calculation of GDP by source of income

The method of forming GDP by source of income is one of the three methods for calculating GDP. However, it is not the main one, since, in accordance with the adopted methodology, not all income indicators are obtained by direct counting, some of them are calculated by the balance method.

The formation of gross domestic product by source of income reflects the primary income received by units directly involved in production, as well as government bodies (public sector organizations) and non-profit organizations serving households. In this calculation, gross profit or gross mixed income is the balancing item and is defined as the difference between gross domestic product calculated at market prices and wages of employees and net taxes on production and imports.

When defined by the distribution method, GDP includes the following types of primary income: wages of employees, net taxes on production and imports (taxes on production and imports minus subsidies on production and imports), gross profit, and gross mixed income.

GDP = W + Q + R + P + T,

where GDP gross domestic product

W wages paid by enterprises and

organizations of a given country to their workers and employees,

whether they are residents or

non-residents of this country;

Q social security contributions;

R gross profit;

P gross mixed income;

T taxes on production and imports (net of subsidies).

Compensation of employees is the sum of all remuneration in cash or in kind paid by employers to an employee in exchange for work performed during the reporting period. It consists of two components:

a) salary. Covers all types of earnings, including various bonuses, allowances accrued in cash or in kind at the expense of cost and profit. As well as amounts of money accrued in accordance with the law for unworked time (vacation, holidays, etc.). Wages are taken into account before taxes and other deductions levied on employees.

b) Employers' social insurance contributions are made by employers to ensure that employees are eligible for future social benefits.

A distinction is made between actual (payments made by employers to a third party, i.e. social security organizations under the Social Security and Security program) and imputed (equivalent to social benefits paid by employers directly to their employees or former employees).

Taxes on production and imports- These are mandatory payments collected by government authorities from enterprises in connection with the production and import of goods and services or the use of production factors. This includes taxes such as: VAT, excises, sales taxes, turnover tax, taxes on certain types of services, profits of fiscal monopolies, taxes on imports, exports, customs duties, taxes on land, capital goods and labor.

Subsidies for production and importsThese are current non-refundable non-refundable payments that the state makes to enterprises in connection with the production, sale or import of goods and services.

To calculate the indices of the physical volume of GDP and its components, the GDP indicators, initially estimated at current prices, must be re-evaluated at constant prices, which are usually used as current prices of any period taken as the basis of comparison, i.e. base period. There are several methods for calculating GDP and its components at constant prices, the most important of which are:

1) deflation method using price indices;

2) double deflation method;

3) the method of extrapolation of indicators of the base period using indices of physical volume;

4) method of revaluation of cost elements.

GDP = National Income + Depreciation + Indirect Taxes Subsidies Net Factor Income from Abroad (NIF) (or + Net Factor Income of Foreigners Working in the Country (NFR)),

Where: National income = wages + rent + interest payments + corporate profits.

3.3. Calculation of GDP by expenditure.

Gross domestic product, calculated using the use method, is the sum of the expenditures of all economic sectors on final consumption, gross capital formation and net exports.

Final consumption expenditures are subdivided into expenditures of households, government agencies (public sector organizations) and non-profit organizations (NPOs) serving households. On the other hand, expenditures on goods, individual services and collective services are singled out in final consumption expenditures. Goods and individual services can always be bought and sold on the market, or they can be provided as transfers in kind. Collective services are services provided simultaneously to all members of society or part of it (for example, public administration and security). Household final consumption is the consumption of goods and individual services. The system of national accounts assumes that all services provided by non-profit organizations to households are individual. Public administration bodies (state institutions) can provide both individual and collective services.

According to the Keynesian model of economic development, GDP in the simplest case is represented as the sum of 4 main components - consumption C, investment I, government spending S and net exports, i.e. full export minus full import Ex-Im:

GDP = C + I + S + (Ex - Im)

GDP = Final consumption + Gross capital formation (investment in a firm, that is, the purchase of machinery, equipment, stocks, production sites) + Government spending + Net exports (exports imports; can be either positive or negative).

Where

GDP (by expenditure) includes the following items:

1. Household final consumer spending. These are consumer goods, consumer durables, expenses for consumer services, etc.
2. Final expenses of government bodies (public institutions). These are the expenses of state and municipal governments for the purchase of economic resources and manufactured products for the needs of the state, which is expressed as the sum of the costs of paying salaries to state and municipal employees (employees of the so-called public sector), for the purchase of goods and services for state needs.
3. Final expenditures of non-profit institutions serving households. These are the expenses of trade unions, political parties and religious organizations, public associations for services to society as a whole and to individual households.
4. Gross fixed capital formation (gross capital investment), which consists of the so-called net capital investments, i.e. those financed not by depreciation, and depreciation deductions (they also go to finance capital investments).
5. Changes in inventories, which are an integral part of the total gross capital formation.
6. Net exports of goods and services calculated at domestic prices.

Chapter 4. Dynamics of GDP in Russia.

GDP in Russia in 2005:

According to the World Bank, Russia's PPP per capita GDP in 2005 grew by 15.6%, amounting to $11,853. According to this indicator, Russia took 57th place among the countries of the world, having overtaken Turkey, Mexico and Botswana in comparison with 2004.

The volume of Russia's GDP in PPP terms in 2005 amounted to $1.70 trillion. Compared to 2004, Russia has risen to 8th place among the countries of the world in this indicator, overtaking Italy and Brazil.

Russian GDP in 2010:

In 2010, Russia's GDP increased by 4.0%, which was the highest among all G8 countries. Almost half of GDP growth in 2010 was provided by manufacturing industries, sectors with a high level of added value.

According to the World Bank, Russia's PPP per capita GDP in 2010 grew by 8.0%, amounting to $20,770. According to this indicator, Russia ranked 43rd among the countries of the world.

In 2014, the nominal volume of Russia's GDP amounted to 71.0 trillion rubles.

The physical volume of GDP in 2014 increased by 0.6%. The Russian economy smoothly entered a period of recession and economic crisis. This state of affairs did not come as a surprise to most experts in the field of economics, but rather a pattern. After all, it is no secret to anyone that recently, the economic policy of the Russian government has been purely populist in nature, and the federal budget revenues more than half depended on proceeds from the sale of oil and gas. In 2014, the situation deteriorated sharply due to Western sanctions against large Russian companies, as well as falling oil prices. Thus, the Kremlin's plans for the Russian economy to enter the top 5 largest in the world by 2020 will remain just plans.

The structure of Russia's GDP by use for 2014:

• Household final consumption expenditure 52.7%
• Government final consumption expenditure 19.5%
• Final consumption expenditure of non-profit institutions serving households 0.4%
• Gross fixed capital formation 20.4%
• Change in inventories 0.2%
• Net exports 6.8%
• The structure of Russia's GDP by source of income (data for 2014):
• Compensation of employees 52.3%
• Net taxes on production and imports 15.1%

The gross profit of the economy and the gross mixed income of 32.6% by 2020 will remain just plans.

General forecast for 2015:

Russia's three-year budget, adopted by the State Duma in November 2014, provides for economic growth of 1.2% in 2015, 2.3% in 2016 and 3% in 2017, assuming that the price of a barrel of oil is $.

Earlier this year, the Russian Ministry of Economic Development provided the government with the following forecast:

• decrease in the level of gross domestic product by 3%;
• acceleration of inflation up to 12% (compared to the indicators of the previous year 11.4%);
• decrease in real wages by 9%.

This is an updated forecast. Earlier, the Ministry of Economic Development provided somewhat more optimistic data, indicating a decrease in GDP by less than one percent. This assessment was announced in December 2014 and was the first recognition that in 2015 the state of the Russian economy will deteriorate. Recall that in 2009, during the crisis, the level of GDP fell by 7.8%.

The current estimate of the Ministry of Economic Development has become closer to the expectations of leading rating agencies and international financial institutions, which expect Russia's gross domestic product to fall by 5%.

Conclusion.

Summing up, we can highlight the most basic based on all of the above.

The system of national accounts reflects the relationship of the most important macroeconomic indicators, one of which is the gross domestic product (GDP).

GDP is an indicator of the system of national accounts, which characterizes the value of final goods and services produced by the residents of the country for a given period. GDP is used to characterize the results of production, the level of economic development, the rate of economic growth, the analysis of labor productivity in the economy, and so on.

There are three key points in the concept of GDP:

1. GDP is a measure of the product produced;
2. GDP is a domestic product;
3. GDP is the gross product.

There are also three methods for calculating GDP, but we have considered two of them:

1. GDP as the sum of final use components (according to this method, GDP is defined as the sum of expenditures on final consumption of goods and services, gross capital formation, the balance of exports and imports of goods and services).
2. GDP as the sum of primary incomes (when defined by this method, GDP includes the following types of primary incomes: wages of employees, net taxes on production and imports (taxes on production and imports minus subsidies on production and imports), gross profit and gross mixed income).

GDP does not include what is produced for final use in households, i.e. is not "put on the market" and therefore has no market value.

GDP expressed in current prices is called nominal GDP, and in base year prices it is called real GDP.

We can see the dynamics of GDP growth in Russia in the following table:

Year	GDP at current prices, billion rubles	GDP at PPP in 2011 prices, billion dollars	GDP nominal, billion dollars
2006	26 917,2	2 812,3	989,9
2007	33 247,5	3 052,4	1 299,7
2008	41 276,8	3 212,5	1 660,8
2009	38 807,2	2 961,3	1 222,0
2010	46 308,5	3 094,6	1 479,8
2011	55 967,2	3 226,6	1 885,0
2012	62 218,4	3 337,5	1 954,0
2013	66 755,3	3 492	2 097,0
2014	70 975	3 559	2 057
2015	67 569	3 398

Thus, we see that at the moment the GDP in Russia is declining, for the following reasons:

• Political situation. It is no secret that the situation in Ukraine and the sanctions of European countries have a negative impact on the economy of the Russian Federation as a whole, and, of course, this is reflected in the level of GDP.
• Depreciation of the ruble. The currency situation is an important factor that played against the Russian economy.
• Decline in oil prices. Since oil occupies about 10% in the structure of the country's gross domestic product, a sharp drop in prices per barrel cannot but affect the level of GDP.

In the conditions of changing seasons, the activity of economic objects is accompanied by changes in the intensity of the dynamics of socio-economic processes. This can manifest itself in the form of alternations of ups and downs in various indicators of the organization's activity (output, cost, labor productivity, profits, and others), as well as the suspension of production processes in certain periods.

Accounting for seasonal fluctuations leads to a decrease in errors in the calculation of the theoretical values ​​of the organization's performance indicators and in their forecasting. The use of more accurate values ​​will make it possible to bring the developed model of an economic object closer to reality, which is one of the tasks in its creation. Thus, part of the forecasting task should be the task of estimating oscillatory processes that can significantly affect the resulting picture of the predicted state of the object.

Bibliography.

1. Baranov P.B., Vorontsov A.V., Shevchenko S.V. "Social science. The Complete Guide". M.: AST: Astrel, 2014
2. Borisov E.F., Petrov A.A., Sterlikova F.F. "Economics, Handbook". Publisher: Finance and Statistics, M.: 1997
3. Vidyapin V.I., Dobrynin A.I., Zhuravleva G.P., Tarasevich L.S. Economic theory. Textbook. Ed. correct and additional M: INFRA-M, 2008.
4. Mikhailushkin A.I., P.D. Shimko "Economics". Publisher: "Higher School", M.: 2004
5. Stolyarov V.I. "Economics" Vocational training. Publisher: "Academy", M.: 2008
6. "Economics" edited by Doctor of Economic Sciences Professor A. S. Bulatov, M .: Economist, 2005

1 V. I. Stolyarov "Economics", Vocational training. Publisher: ACADEMA, M.: 2008, p. 127

2 "Economics" edited by Doctor of Economic Sciences Professor A. S. Bulatov, M .: Economist, 2005

3 Vidyapin V.I., Dobrynin A.I., Zhuravleva G.P., Tarasevich L.S. Economic theory. Textbook. Ed. correct and additional M: INFRA-M, 2008. page 385

4 E.F. Borisov. A.A. Petrov, F.F. Sterlikov "Economics", reference book, p. 50

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	Drotaverine hydrochloride. Drotaverine hydrochloride is a synthetic analogue of papaverine hydrochloride and, in terms of chemical structure, is a derivative of benzylisoquinoline. Drotaverine hydrochloride belongs to the group of drugs with antispasmodic activity, antispasmodic myotropic action and is the main active ingredient of the drug no-shpa. Drotaverine hydrochloride A pharmacopoeial article on drotaverine hydrochloride is presented in the Pharmacopoeia edition.
1473.		The procedure for internal audit at the enterprise	87.52KB
	An effective quality audit in an enterprise can significantly improve the quality management system and, as a result, raise the quality of the product itself. The relevance is justified by the fact that at present Russian enterprises do not pay enough attention to the quality audit carried out by the organization itself. But it is precisely the internal quality audit that, first of all, makes it possible to determine to what extent the mandatory procedures planned and adopted at the discretion of the organization and ...
9853.		Customs payments in domestic consumption mode	484.04KB
	Features of the customs regime for the release of goods for domestic consumption. Customs policy is a political tool in the state regulation of the movement of goods across the customs border and is a political component of customs regulation. When moving domestic consumption goods across the customs border of the Russian Federation, the goods must go through customs clearance. Customs payments are understood as payments subject to mandatory payment when moving through the customs ...
21109.		Calculation of the internal power supply system of industrial electrical equipment	390.87KB
	Input distribution device Introduction Electricity has become an integral part of our lives. The purpose of the work is relevant for the development of professional knowledge of technicians for the installation, commissioning and operation of electrical equipment of industrial and civil buildings. According to the purpose of the course work, the following tasks are set: the choice ...
11320.		THERMAL AND DYNAMIC CALCULATION OF THE INTERNAL COMBUSTION ENGINE	240.88KB
	Gasoline engines with fuel injection and forced ignition of the working mixture, depending on the organization of the mixture formation process and their design features, can combine the positive properties of both carburetor engines and diesel engines.
3431.		Legal basis of the customs procedure "Release for domestic consumption"	3.77KB
	When these conditions are met, the goods acquire the status of goods of the customs union. When granting benefits for the payment of customs duties, taxes associated with restrictions on the use or disposal of goods, goods are subject to conditional release and retain the status of foreign goods. The obligation to pay import customs duties and taxes in respect of goods placed under the customs procedure for release for domestic consumption arises for the declarant from the moment the customs authority registers the customs declaration. Duty to...
18955.		Analysis of the financial condition, accounting and internal control in the organization	303.64KB
	The wages of all employees of the enterprise in total gives an indicator of the wage fund (WFP), which occupies a significant share in the expenses of the enterprise. Depending on the industry, the individual characteristics of the enterprise and the policy of management in the field of employee benefits, the share of expenses on payroll can vary from a few percent to half of the total cost of the enterprise. This is a considerable amount, so the analysis of this expense item of the enterprise is so important.
20359.		ANALYSIS OF THE KEY FACTORS OF THE INTERNAL AND EXTERNAL HR-BRAND OF THE COMPANY ON THE EXAMPLE OF OAO PROGRESS	215.87KB
	Man has become the most valuable resource. Many organizations, wanting to emphasize their weight and scope, do not talk about the size of their production capacity, production or sales volume, financial potential, etc., but about the number of employees in the organization. Personnel management, as well as the organization as a whole, is a necessary element of this interaction. Competent management of the organization seeks to use the potential of its employees as efficiently as possible
12962.		Study and evaluation of the accounting and internal control system during the audit	403.45KB
	Checked: Tula 2015 Contents Introduction The scale and features of the internal control system, as well as the degree of their formalization, should correspond to the size of the economic entity and the characteristics of its activities. A properly organized internal control system can contribute to the formation of...