Syrian déjà vu: is Putin preparing an invasion of Libya. Libya: Russia's second Middle Eastern front Russian troops in Libya

In Ukraine, we managed to find a man who fought in Libya. The story of a mercenary in Libya.

The story of a Ukrainian mercenary.

Mercenary activity has long been a full-fledged profession. It has many names, but only one meaning. In France, soldiers for hire were nicknamed "legionnaires", in Germany Landsknecht (servant of the country), in the United States they are called "wild geese."

The history of Ukrainian mercenary activity begins with the birth of an independent Ukraine. In the 90s, when the economy was bursting at the seams, military units collapsed one after another across the country. Experienced officers were literally driven out into the street. It was during this period that the first Ukrainian soldiers rushed abroad in search of happiness. Chechnya, Sierra Leone, Karabakh, Transnistria, Yugoslavia, South Ossetia. More recently - another milestone - Libya.

Officially, ours were not there. The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry has repeatedly stated: news about the Ukrainian military is nothing but a duck of journalists. By the way, journalists, primarily Western ones, wrote about Ukrainian mercenaries in Libya in the early days of the clashes. For example, on February 22, the American publication Stratfor, citing its sources, disseminated information that Ukrainian pilots on Soviet MiGs allegedly bombed rebel troops and peaceful demonstrations against Gaddafi. It was even reported that one of our aces was captured.

Later - on August 23 - an employee of the American channel Channel 4 News discovered the Ukrainian trace in the Libyan war. On Twitter, she wrote: “Libyan rebels have captured Ukrainian mercenaries who fought on the side of Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi. I saw 11 men walking with their hands up. The rebel commander said they were hired killers who came to Libya from Ukraine. "

Earnings

In Ukraine, we managed to find a man who fought in Libya. 39-year-old Vladimir Lyakhovich (as he asked to be called) came home from the unrest-ridden country just a month ago.

There he commanded a unit of troops of the government of Muammar Gaddafi in Misrata for several months. Several times his life hung in the balance. Before leaving, he was seriously wounded in the shoulder.

Vladimir did not give permission to publish his photo. Even his wife and schoolgirl daughter have no idea what he actually did in Tripoli - they believe he worked as a contract driver for a used car company. But in fact, Lyakhovich (by the way, he is from an officer's family, with weapons from childhood on you) first visited a hot spot in 1999 (Kosovo), true, as a peacemaker. There I met people who were recruiting mercenaries.

- As soon as the turmoil from Egypt spread to Libya, I realized that I could find a job. I went out to recruiters - they always become active in such unstable periods, - says Vladimir. - Moreover, Libya is a rich country, the technology there is Soviet, the Arabs do not know how to fight ... I learned from my own channels: the mercenaries are being recruited by a company from Odessa. In the early days of the war, they sent a plane with engineers to Tripoli. These guys in the 90s served aircraft and rocket launchers in Libya. A little later I heard that two dozen infantrymen flew to Jamahiriya. In the past, they took part in peacekeeping operations, and some have even "tested" in Georgia.

Vladimir arrived in Odessa in mid-February. A small office in the city center recruited technicians to the Arab countries. Oilmen, engineers, drivers were needed. The main condition is good health and military service.

- A young girl gave me a contract on two sheets of paper, said, I will work as a driver in a car sales company, - continues Volodya. - The flight was scheduled for the first days of March, but not to Tripoli, but to neighboring Sudan. Under this contract I was promised 4 thousand dollars a month.

Vladimir says that five young guys flew with him, one from Donetsk, the rest from Nikolaev and Odessa regions. At the airport, the Ukrainian commandos were met by an Arab who identified himself as Ibrahim. The guys were seated in cars and taken to Tripoli. No visas were placed at the border, mercenaries were imported illegally.

“We met with the military commander at a hotel on the outskirts of Tripoli, he spoke excellent Russian,” says Vladimir Lyakhovich. - We were briefly told about the weapons, asked what is closer to us. Gaddafi needed snipers, commanders of military units, soldiers who know how to handle complex weapons. The Libyans were armed with the same machines as we have. Kalashnikov assault rifles, Soviet anti-aircraft guns, cannons, Grad multiple launch rocket systems. Heavy - T-72 and T-62 tanks, BMP-1 infantry fighting vehicles, BTR-60 armored personnel carriers, BRDM-2 combat reconnaissance vehicles, 2S1 Gvozdika and 2S3 Akatsia self-propelled art installations.

I was assigned to the command of an infantry platoon. It consisted of about 30 people, mainly from the African states neighboring Libya. There were two guys from Serbia, one from Moldova. The rest of the guys who flew in from Ukraine went to snipers, one to the pilots.

All the nuances were settled quickly. I was given a certificate with a false name and surname, on which there was a serial number. We set combat missions.

The "salary" was immediately increased - 10 thousand dollars a month. They promised if it gets really "hot" - $ 1,500 a day.

Russians in Libya

After a month of more or less calm service - the base where Vladimir served, protected the tranquility of Tripoli - a real hell has come. In March, the command of the Libyan troops decided to transfer Vladimir's platoon to Misurata. At that time, Gaddafi's troops had already taken this city three times, but they constantly had to retreat.

“We arrived in Misurata on April 13, and three days later a real massacre began in the city,” Vladimir reluctantly recalls. - 24 hours a day heavy fire did not stop.

I don't know who took part in this meat grinder, my guys had their own tasks, but on the radio air I constantly heard Russian speech. In the center of the city there was the tallest building, where Ukrainian and Belarusian snipers worked. During the next NATO air raid, the building was destroyed. Everyone inside was killed.

It is not known how his business trip would have ended for Vladimir, but on April 27 he received a stray bullet in the shoulder. He himself considers it luck. Because just at that time a lull was established - the next negotiations on an armistice began. Lyakhovich received his money, documents, left for Tripoli, and from there got home (he does not want to say exactly how).

- A mercenary has few rights in a war, if you come, fight to the end. I was captured - consider that you are a corpse, - says Vladimir. - At the end of April, several dozen soldiers of Slavic appearance who speak Russian were arrested in Misrata. They were transferred to Benghazi prison pending trial. What happened to them is unknown. Judging by how often the Ukrainian authorities repeat that our compatriots are not in Libya, they would rather be shot than returned. After all, this is a huge scandal, houses can also be imprisoned. The mercenaries also understand this. Therefore, when the guys are captured, they do not say from which country they came ...

On November 26, the commander of the Libyan national army, Khalifa Haftar, arrived in Moscow. During the visit, Haftar met with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and held a meeting at the Russian Defense Ministry, where he voiced his wishes for receiving military assistance from Russia to fight the Islamists. In June of this year, Haftar already visited Moscow and met with Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev. According to unconfirmed official reports, in September, Haftar's envoy in Moscow also asked Russia to help lift the embargo on arms supplies to Libya's national army.

This visit did not receive much attention from the Russian media, but in the Middle East these shuttle flights of the general are given much more importance.

Khalifa Haftar is an interesting figure. Born in 1943, a graduate of the Benghazi Military Academy, trained in the USSR and Egypt, speaks Russian, participated in the coup that brought Gaddafi to power. In 1973, during the war with Israel, he commanded Libyan units supporting Egypt. Participated in the Chad-Libyan conflict and was captured, after which Gaddafi disowned Haftar, which greatly influenced the relationship between them.

From captivity, Haftar moves, with the support of the CIA, to Zaire, Kenya, and, finally, to the United States. Lives there for almost 20 years, receives American citizenship. In 2011, Haftar returns to Libya and takes part in the war. He is a prominent opposition figure. And after many years of political and military maneuvering in the chaos of Libyan events, after the surviving attempts on the life of Haftar in April 2016, during the campaign to return former officers to the army, Gaddafi became the commander-in-chief of the national army, which his opponents, however, call another personal group.

Today, several forces have at least some significant power in Libya, including the parliament elected back in 2014 and headquartered in Tobruk, the Government of National Accord, created in March 2016 with the support of the UN and Europe, headquartered in Tripoli and not yet surrendering Islamic state (prohibited in the Russian Federation) in the besieged Sirte.

Until recently, Khalifa Haftar enjoyed the support of the United States, but after the refusal to recognize the government of national accord created in March, his American friends grew very cold towards him. Haftar today supports the parliament in Tobruk, while he himself is based in the Benghazi region and periodically leads fighting both against Islamists and against groups associated with Tripoli. Haftar is helped primarily by Egypt and the United Arab Emirates, which, possibly, are also delivering weapons by air to the units of Haftar's national army that are fighting. It was Egypt and the UAE that could mediate and push Haftar to openly turn to Russia for military support.

In June, negotiations with Moscow did not bear fruit. The special forces of the United States, Great Britain and Italy were preparing the Libyans for the storming of Sirte, the Western Coalition actively bombed Sirte and IS, and Russia was occupied by Syria and did not want to interfere.

Now, with Trump's election as President of the United States, with increased uncertainty about Western policy in the Middle East and North Africa, due to the long absence of a complete victory over IS in Sirte, and due to the vague prospects of success in the fight against Islamists in general, Haftar has a desire to insure himself for the future, "by establishing relations with another great power," especially since in the fall he managed to recapture these very oil infrastructure objects from the "Guard of Defense of Oil Objects".

The well-known Israeli resource DEBKAfile, which rather enjoys the reputation of a "yellow" publication, writes that Haftar is asking Russia for armored vehicles, helicopters, aircraft, and it is possible that during the negotiations he also voiced a scenario of direct air support for Russian aviation. According to DEBKAfile, Russia has a "window of opportunity" and it could use the aircraft carrier "Admiral Kuznetsov" for these purposes or the Sidi Barrani airbase in Egypt near the border with Libya. Moreover, Moscow may well have thought about creating its own naval and air force base in the Benghazi region. It would become the first base of post-Soviet Russia in North Africa, and as the newspaper emphasizes, just 700 kilometers from Europe.

Speculation about Russia's base in Libya is not new. Back in 2009, Reuters quoted an unnamed Russian military spokesman as saying that Russia had made a political decision to establish Russian naval bases in Syria, Libya and Yemen over the next few years.

In November this year, the European resource Modern Diplomacy writes that in Libya, Russia is trying to ensure that instability in this country remains a "headache" for Europe, and that in general, NATO's intervention and the overthrow of Gaddafi caused Putin's personal indignation.

And the Brookings Institution in September 2016 noted that Russia not only wants to expand the market for its weapons through supplies to Libya, but also longs for and plays a leading role in the country's reconstruction, economically and politically, preventing Libya from becoming a pro-Western state in foreseeable future. Moreover, such a Libya can guarantee Russia (meaning the Russian Navy) the use of ports in Benghazi and Sirte, which will further strengthen Russia's position and influence in the Mediterranean.

Ilya Plekhanov

Commander of the Libyan National Army Khalifa Haftar during his visit to Moscow Photo: EPA / UPG

New reports of contacts between the military command of Libya and representatives of Russia may indicate possible plans of the Russian Federation to start a military campaign in Libya. Moscow clearly will not refuse to strengthen its positions in North Africa, especially since requests for help are coming from Libya. this state may become another conflict zone, because of which the West will be forced to sit down at the negotiating table with Russia.

New applicants for Russian aid

For the first time, rumors of a possible Russian invasion of Libya appeared in the summer of 2016. The other day, another message appeared, which may indicate the beginning new operation RF. On January 11, a Russian military delegation arrived at the Libyan port of Tobruk to meet with Marshal Khalifa Haftar, commander-in-chief of the so-called Libyan National Army and President of the Libyan House of Representatives, Agila Saleh Issa. The Russians sailed on the aircraft-carrying cruiser Admiral Kuznetsov, which was returning after participating in the Syrian campaign to the place of permanent deployment (Severomorsk, Russia). This is symbolic, since it is simply impossible to assess Russia's potential operation in Libya without comparing it with Syria. Haftar's meetings with the Russian military and a video conference with Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu took place on board the aircraft carrier.

In late November, during his second visit in 2016, Haftar met with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in Moscow and asked for support for the Libyan army. Lavrov noted the role of the Libyan military in the fight against terrorism and support for Libya's independence. During that visit, Haftar also met with Shoigu and the head of the Security Council Nikolai Patrushev. As reported by sources close to Haftar, the Libyan marshal had previously tried to persuade Moscow to lift the UN Security Council's embargo on arms supplies to Libya (Russia joined this decision), or to supply weapons and equipment through a third party. And even - to start a military operation in Libyan territory, directed against Islamist militants. As Moscow has repeatedly stated, the Russian Federation began its operation in Syria at the request of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

As follows from a recent statement by Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Gennady Gatilov to Bloomberg, Russia is not yet enthusiastic about the idea of \u200b\u200blifting the embargo, since it doubts the ability of the Libyan authorities to control their safety in the face of military and political instability in this North African country.

And the authorities, good and different, in Libya are plenty. In addition to those sitting in Tobruk, there is the Government of National Accord in Tripoli, formed from moderate pro-Islamic forces and representatives of secular political movements. The process of its creation was launched at the initiative of the UN in December 2015 in the Moroccan city of Skhirat and ended in March 2016. You cannot say that this project was successful - torn apart by contradictions, the government is still trying to prove its legitimacy.

In addition, in Tripoli there is still an unrecognized moderate Islamist Government of National Salvation headed by "Prime Minister" Khalifa Gwell, who does not want to disperse after the formation of the Government of National Accord and periodically announces the seizure of administrative buildings. Haftar and his allied parliament are also in fact an illegal government, because they did not want to resign after the agreement in Morocco. Although, prior to its signing, the parliament in Tobruk, elected in 2014, was recognized by the world community. Haftar's forces now control most of Libya. The UN accuses Haftar's military of torture and unlawful killings.

The inability to form a unified central government naturally prevents the Libyan authorities from starting a joint struggle against radical Islamists, who are the country's main problem. Russia, in the words of the same Gatilov, advocates an equal dialogue of the legal government in Tripoli with socio-political movements, tribal groups and national minorities (except for recognized and self-proclaimed governments, in Libya there are a lot of army groups and tribal groups that control certain regions of the country, like the Berbers and Tuareg), which it seems to be not leading. Unlike Syria, in Libya, Moscow does not firmly defend the interests of one side of the conflict, formally advocating a dialogue between Tripoli and Tobruk and noting the efforts of the two capitals to fight terrorists. But her sympathies are indeed on the side of Khalifa Haftar.

"Haftar is undoubtedly a leading political and military figure," Gatilov told American journalists. "We believe that the Libyans need to find a compromise on his participation in the new Libyan leadership."

The UAE and Egypt are also on the Haftar side. His rivals are Qatar, Turkey and the West. As the director of the Institute of Oriental Studies. A. Ye. Krymsky NAS of Ukraine Alexander Bogomolov, the tendency is really noticeable: both Haftar and official Cairo are getting closer to Russia.

What is the interest

As in the case of Syria, Moscow regularly points to the mistakes of the West in Libya, calling the operation of the Western coalition in 2011, which led to the overthrow and assassination of Muammar Gaddafi, illegal (in fairness, it really turned out to be a failure and led to one of the most obvious failures of the United States. Britain and France in the Middle East). Khalifa Haftar was once a supporter of Gaddafi, but then fell out with him and moved to the United States - in Libya, he undoubtedly represents the old guard.

Ricardo Fabiani, an expert on the Middle East and North Africa from London's Eurasia Group Eurasia Group, told Voice of America that Haftar is "the ideal intermediary" for Moscow. Just because he wants to restore the "old order". This is another parallel with Syria, where Russians support Bashar al-Assad's regime. Russia's decision to back Haftar will create the potential for a new area of \u200b\u200brivalry with the West. And if he manages to spread his influence throughout the country, take a political position and thus increase his importance in the region, this could become a real success for the Kremlin. But until Donald Trump takes office as president of the United States, Russia has to wait to understand what the "new rules of the game in Libya" are.

One of the aspects why Russia needs to have influence in Libya is the flow of migrants and refugees from all over Africa that flows through this country (to a lesser extent, this concerns the Libyans themselves). Africans, crossing the Mediterranean Sea, find themselves in the countries of Southern Europe - primarily Italy and Greece. Migration flows, as we understand it, have become Europe in the hands of Moscow. In this regard, Russia is suitable, perhaps, both the option with instability in Libya, and the consolidation of a loyal person in power who can turn a blind eye to illegal migration from the Libyan coast. Gaddafi, by the way, was famous for tight control of his borders and brutal reprisals against illegal immigrants.

Will Russia decide on an operation

So will Moscow decide on a "short and victorious" operation in Libya? There is no sure answer to this question yet. Russia may indeed have motives for such an operation, but there are doubts that they are convincing enough. The Russian government had to fully learn the Syrian lessons - and they are extremely contradictory. On the one hand, after the Russian war crimes, accusations again fell on Moscow. On the other hand, during the Syrian campaign, the Kremlin managed to achieve notable successes, defending the regime of Bashar al-Assad. Although the capture of Aleppo was on Assad's list of priorities, it was not for Russia seeking to return to the "big club."

“I would advise not to exaggerate the risk of direct Russian interference,” said Alexander Bogomolov. “But Russia, of course, will try to influence the situation, because it is trying to climb wherever there is such an opportunity, trying to become a player in the international arena, so that with it were considered ". ...

But to achieve peace in Libya is not in the sphere of Russia's capabilities: “No external force is now capable of completely controlling Libya or drastically changing the situation there, because it depends more on internal dynamics. And the internal dynamics is also not controllable - it is quite chaotic, there are many centers of influence. "

Russian military expert Pavel Felgenhauer also considers the likelihood of a Russian operation in Libya low, although Russian advisers may appear in that country, as well as arms supplies.

"Russia would like to gain influence in the Greater Middle East. So in a sense, presence there is useful and may even appear. But Russia does not have enough resources for one more operation, so this is now unlikely," Felgenhauer told Apostrophe.

Alexander Golts, military columnist and editor-in-chief of the Russian Daily Journal, argues that Russia has no realistic goals in the Middle East, and calls it a game of geopolitics. If Moscow decides on an operation in Libya, it will confine itself to air strikes, he expressed his opinion in a commentary to our publication.

Anatoly Baronin, director of the Da Vinci AG analytical group, told "Apostrophe" that the first harbingers of the Russian operation in this country appeared last summer - such conclusions could be drawn on the basis of joint Russian-Egyptian exercises and a number of visits by the Egyptian military command. Just after the exercises, Haftar visited Moscow then.

“The Russian Federation, in my opinion, pursues two goals: firstly, it is a demonstration of its strengthening in the region. The Kremlin seeks to demonstrate that it achieves its goals where Washington has not been able to achieve success. Although, I think, the Kremlin understands very well that even with the help of military intervention they will not be able to stabilize the situation and establish inter-tribal dialogue in this country. Secondly, the goal is to obtain a controlled regime in North Africa with the deployment of a military base in the Mediterranean region, "Baronin tried to explain the motives of the Russian Federation. He estimated the probability of the operation at 50%.

Among the factors that influence the decision to conduct the operation, Baronin named the situation in the Sirte region, until recently the main city of the Islamic State in Libya, Egypt's readiness to support the operation (the Russian Federation itself is almost certainly unable to carry it out effectively), the reaction of the international community to support Moscow Tobruk and the effect of the operation on the dynamics of oil prices. Given the repeated mutual meetings, the analyst suggested that the basic details of the agreement between Tobruk and Moscow have not yet been agreed upon.

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What is Russia doing in Libya? September 16th, 2017

With Syria, everything is more or less clear. Western analysts are already openly saying that this intervention is successful because it helped to achieve the original goal, that is, to save the Syrian government led by Assad. Moreover, as the same analysts and experts note, "these results were achieved with the help of rather limited resources. They amount, if we consider the forces involved (from 4 to 5 thousand people and from 50 to 70 aircraft as the main force) and the costs of their use (about 3 million euros per day), about a quarter or a fifth of US efforts in the region. "

Maybe someone does not know, but Russia is now taking an active enough position in long-suffering Libya. And what is she doing there?

This is how Western analysts describe it.

Following Russian military intervention in Syria, Moscow's role in civil war in Libya may seem, at first glance, a kind of déjà vu. Once again, the Kremlin seems to be helping a pro-Russian regional dictator consolidate power and create a "crescent of Russian influence" in the Middle East. Like Syrian President Assad, Haftar often positions himself as a bulwark against violent extremism in Libya, the article says.

"However, the actual strategy of Russia does not imply bombing Libya to force it to recognize as its leader the" man of Moscow. "Russia's intentions in Libya to a much greater extent involve cooperation with the international community, although not to the detriment of its own national interests," the authors note.

Khalifa Haftar

"There is no doubt that Russia has relied on Haftar," the authors write. He was repeatedly received in Moscow as a foreign leader already in office.

Moscow printed about $ 3 billion in Libyan dinars on behalf of Haftar-controlled Libyan Central Bank and sent Russian specialists to repair and upgrade LNA military equipment, which is almost entirely based on the Soviet arsenal, the article said.

“Russia expects to get three benefits from supporting Haftar. First, Moscow hopes that Haftar will eventually get enough political powerto give Russia the honorary privilege of concluding economic transactions, which compensates for its financial losses: $ 150 million in profit from construction projects, $ 3 billion from a contract with Russian Railways, up to $ 3.5 billion from energy deals and at least $ 4 billion from sales weapons, which occurred due to the fall of the Libyan dictator Muammar Gaddafi, "the authors argue.

“Secondly, Russia expects Haftar's help in strengthening its martial law in the Mediterranean, which will allow Moscow to expand its influence off the coast of Europe and strengthen its position in the Middle East and North Africa. In 2008, Gaddafi began to discuss the issue of Russian military naval bases in Libya. Although none of them were ultimately leased, Russian officials revisited the idea after discussing with Haftar the possibility of opening a base near Benghazi, "the article says.

Finally, Russia seeks political benefits from the ability to resolve regional crises. Given this goal, it would be too risky for Russia to rely solely on Haftar, whose ability to establish control over the entire country is still questionable, the authors note. It is with this that they associate Russia's readiness to cooperate in the UN with the international community on Libya and support for the embargo on the import of weapons into the country, which is extremely disadvantageous for Haftar.

"Russia may benefit from a coalition government in Libya with Haftar as the head of the armed forces than a government fully controlled by Haftar. The former would mean, to some extent, political reconciliation between the main conflicting parties in the state and, thus, sufficient stability. guaranteeing long-term economic investment and the construction of military facilities, which Russia is seeking, without fear that all this may be suddenly lost, as after the fall of Gaddafi, "the authors believe.

“Ultimately, the main return on investment in Libya that Russia expects is not a base or a contract. It is the ability to substantiate one of the central ideas that it has been talking about to the world and its citizens in recent years: what the US has broken. can be repaired by Russia ", - conclude Pigman and Orton.

sources

By providing military assistance to the Libyan army, Russia will expand its geopolitical influence in the Middle East and Mediterranean. And will embitter the Arab countries and Israel even more

Recently, contacts between the Russian leadership and representatives of Libya have become more frequent. In particular, from Sunday to Tuesday, the commander-in-chief of the Libyan army, Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar, was in Moscow, who held talks with the heads of the Foreign Ministry and the Ministry of Defense, as well as the Secretary of the Security Council. He made his previous visit to Moscow in June this year. After that, many analysts noted an increase in the supply of Russian weapons to the Libyan National Army (LNA), which controls 70% of the country's territory, and its growing support from Egypt. Thus, the main force of Libya turned to Russia for support, and not to the United States and its satellites, which is very symptomatic. NATO failed to conquer and subjugate Libya and its people.

In response to arms assistance, Russia can count on expanding its military presence and influence in the Middle East, which will now extend to North Africa. Debka.com, a website close to the Israeli intelligence services, published an article New Putin move to win a military base in Libya, in which it claims that the talks with General Haftar were supposed to go about Russia's further support for the Libyan army in the fight against ISIS (banned in Russia) , the supply of weapons and equipment, as well as the opening in Libya of a new Russian naval and air base.

According to military and intelligence sources DEBKA file, President Vladimir Putin began work to establish a second Mediterranean base on the Benghazi coast, the twin of Hmeimim in Syrian Latakia. It must be capable of accommodating both the ships of the navy and aviation units. The Israelis are particularly concerned about the fact that the base will be located 700 kilometers from Europe. Egypt and the UAE are providing air support for Haftar's army with aircraft based at Egyptian bases in the Western Desert. It was the leaders of Egypt and the UAE who urged General Haftar to accept the Russian invitation to Moscow and the offer of military assistance. Now for air support for the Libyan army russian aircraftbased in Hmeimim have to cover a distance of 1,500 km. With the acquisition of a base directly in Libya with support from the sea by a naval aircraft carrier group, Russia will be able to more effectively influence the situation in the country.

The Israeli website notes that if Russia acquires a base in Libya and sends the aircraft-carrying cruiser Admiral Kuznetsov to it, this will be the first time in history when Russian ships of this class will be based in the southern Mediterranean.

The war in Libya is now centered around several oil fields. With the support of Russia, General Haftar will gain control over the oil-producing structure of Libya, and Putin will be able to effectively influence the situation in all of North Africa. Egypt, to which Saudi Arabia has now cut off oil supplies over two disputed islands in the Red Sea, hopes to fill the gap with Libyan oil. In addition, the elimination of the hotbed of terrorism and chaos on its western borders is the primary task for the country's security.

The support of General Haftar from the United Arab Emirates plays a special role in Libya. In Libya, this support conflicts with the interests of Qatar and some Saudi princes who support ISIS in Sirte, as well as Europeans who support the Tripoli-based Government of National Unity, but which the LNA does not support. A place for maneuver in the further development of the situation is given by the fact that the President of the United Arab Emirates Sheikh Khalifa bin Zayed Al Nahyan is a close friend and supporter Donald Trump... From this fact, it can be assumed that in the Libyan conflict, Russia and the United States will be at least allies after the inauguration of the elected US President and that D. Trump will not object to the Russian military base in Syria.

But Russia, in addition to destroying the terrorist gangs now based in Sirte, will be able to participate in the division of the Libyan oil pie and control practically the entire southern Mediterranean, threatening the NATO bloc in its southern underbelly. We should also not forget about the greatest Libyan irrigation project, the Great Man-Made River, which practically ceased to exist with the murder Muammar Gaddafi... Control over Libya means control over huge reserves of fresh water, along with the infrastructure already built, that could turn the whole of North Africa into a flourishing oasis. Water is gradually becoming a strategic raw material for the future, which privatization water companies (Suez, Veolia Environnement (Vivendi), RWE, Aguas de Barcelona, \u200b\u200bSAUR, United Utilities), which are fully controlled by the World Bank and the IMF, are trying to take control.

Israel's concern is understandable. Russian control over Libya interferes with Israel geopolitically, as well as through South Sudan, Israeli oil interests. Especially Russia in Libya can prevent Israel's allies, ISIS sponsors - Qatar and some sheikhs Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, which are supported by the still acting US Democratic Administration.

On the eve of General Haftar's visit to Moscow, a member of the royal family, Saudi billionaire Prince Alwaleed bin Talal made a loud statement in which he said that if Putin does not return to the negotiating table, Alwaleed will finance Israel, and Arab countries will invade Russia ... Perhaps in order to distract Russia from Libya, Israel will launch a more aggressive policy in Syria with an open military component. He, as always, acts proactively, and the reaction of the Israeli intelligence agencies, which began the information preparation of the article in debka.com, is quite understandable and logical.

Alexander Nikishin

Collage Inosmi